Flight Rising Discussion

Now that I’ve switched over to Water (long planned switch, not just for this project) I’ve started to breed for the dragon that will one day be my Leviathan leveler. I need 3 very specific colors, no alternatives will look how I want. Problem is... this isn’t exactly a common combination of colors. I spent weeks checking the AH for dragons in a good range, and I finally settled on a nice pair that breeds a range of 6 colors each for the primary, secondary, and tertiary. So that’s a 1 in... hang on putting that in the calculator... 216 chance of getting the right colors. And I’m hoping for a female so multiply that by another 1 in 2 for the gender and we bring it up to a 1 in 432 chance of actually getting the hatchling I’m trying for.

Chances are I will find a better match to breed one of the closer offspring with in the meantime, but assuming that I don’t, let’s do some more math...

Adding up the probabilities of the number of eggs for each nest, we get an average of 2.7 eggs per nest. Divide that by 432 and we get the chance of getting the right colors and gender on a hatchling per nest. Subtract that number from 1 and we get the chance of NOT getting the right colors and gender on a hatchling per nest. Multiply THAT number by itself and we get the probability of not having the right colors/gender in 2 nests, multiply again for 3, and so on. We can use this to calculate how many nests need to be bred to have a better than even chance of having the right colors/gender, AKA how many times do we need to multiply the chance of NOT having the right colors/gender by itself before it goes below 50%? No need to math that out because I already did. It’s 111. There is a (slightly) greater than 50% chance of getting the right colors/gender from this pair within 111 nests. Multiply that by the 15 day cooldown and...

I have a greater than even chance of breeding my dream hatchling within 4 and a half years :)

WOO howdy you are in for a long haul!

What's the color combo?

[quote name="adebaser" date="2019-09-14 10:59:14" ] WOO howdy you are in for a long haul! What's the color combo? [/quote] Terracotta/Copper/Abyss. I'm gonna gene it up to have Jaguar/Butterfly/Ringlets which looks quite nice with the combination of red-browns and dark blues! You'd think that Terracotta and Copper would be close on the color wheel so maybe there would be a couple XXYs I could breed together for this combo but nooOOOOoooo they're 25 darn shades apart! I also looked up on the dragon search if there were any existing dragons with these colors. There's just one, exalted and with a [url=http://www1.flightrising.com/search/dragons?page=1&sort=id_asc&name=&exalted=&progen=&breed=&bodygene=&winggene=&tertgene=&gender=&body=108&wings=94&tert=96&element=&body_range=&wings_range=&tert_range=&age=&rtb=&gen1=&pattern=&id_length=&level_min=&level_max=&eyetype=&hibernal_cooldown_status=&ancient=&named=&hibernal=&sort=id_asc&page=1]very fitting name[/url].