More specifically, what are the odds of a dragon getting on the front page twice? Especially a perma?
Shoutout to my Dark Link fandragon for being a special boy I guess
More specifically, what are the odds of a dragon getting on the front page twice? Especially a perma?
Shoutout to my Dark Link fandragon for being a special boy I guess
According to Dragon Search, there are currently 14,068,554 unexalted dragons on the site. (14,068,543 minus the deities.) I'm not sure if dragon search counts anything in locked lairs, but let's just assume it doesn't. I know for sure that the Front Page dragon function includes all unexalted dragons not in locked lairs, so dead lairs/hungry dragons are included. The page updates every minute site time.
So, the front page picks 1 in 14,068,543-ish dragons per minute. The chances of the same dragon appearing twice are.... well, low, but not THAT low because the page rerolls every minute of every day. I'm not sure how to calc exact chances, but I've had a couple dragons hit that page twice in my 6 years of being on FR.
According to Dragon Search, there are currently 14,068,554 unexalted dragons on the site. (14,068,543 minus the deities.) I'm not sure if dragon search counts anything in locked lairs, but let's just assume it doesn't. I know for sure that the Front Page dragon function includes all unexalted dragons not in locked lairs, so dead lairs/hungry dragons are included. The page updates every minute site time.
So, the front page picks 1 in 14,068,543-ish dragons per minute. The chances of the same dragon appearing twice are.... well, low, but not THAT low because the page rerolls every minute of every day. I'm not sure how to calc exact chances, but I've had a couple dragons hit that page twice in my 6 years of being on FR.
oh no this involves maths doesnt it
uh
bad chance
but mayb
oh no this involves maths doesnt it
uh
bad chance
but mayb
14,068,543 dragons
1440 chances to be picked each day
Chance of being picked in a day is 0.01024%
Your dragon has a 0.000000523% chance of being picked more than once in a day
For a year:
Chance of being picked once - 3.667%
Chance of being picked twice - 0.0681%
Chance of being picked three times - 0.000845%
I think
This is also modelled with the assumption that no dragons are born whilst we are taking our results, also I only have a cheap calculator that can't take inputs to a high number of significant errors yay
14,068,543 dragons
1440 chances to be picked each day
Chance of being picked in a day is 0.01024%
Your dragon has a 0.000000523% chance of being picked more than once in a day
For a year:
Chance of being picked once - 3.667%
Chance of being picked twice - 0.0681%
Chance of being picked three times - 0.000845%
I think
This is also modelled with the assumption that no dragons are born whilst we are taking our results, also I only have a cheap calculator that can't take inputs to a high number of significant errors yay
Here I am (seemingly) not even being featured once
Here I am (seemingly) not even being featured once
[quote name="UserOfShadows" date="2021-02-24 23:59:06" ]
According to Dragon Search, there are currently 14,068,554 unexalted dragons on the site. (14,068,543 minus the deities.) I'm not sure if dragon search counts anything in locked lairs, but let's just assume it doesn't. I know for sure that the Front Page dragon function includes all unexalted dragons not in locked lairs, so dead lairs/hungry dragons are included. The page updates every minute site time.
So, the front page picks 1 in 14,068,543-ish dragons per minute. The chances of the same dragon appearing twice are.... well, low, but not THAT low because the page rerolls every minute of every day. I'm not sure how to calc exact chances, but I've had a couple dragons hit that page twice in my 6 years of being on FR.
[/quote]
Every minute you have the 1 in (unexalted dragons) chance, and while the more rolls you have the more chances you get, it doesn't sum up- otherwise you could 100% expect a dragon to appear by a certain date.
The odds of a specific dragon appearing twice are 1/(unexalted dragons) * 1/(unexalted dragons)
Dice example: you have 1/6th change of rolling a 6. If you roll six times, you get six chances to hit the 1/6th, but it doesn't mean you get 6*1/6= 100% chance. You can roll a 1 every time if you're unlucky.
If you want to roll 6 twice, you have 1/6 * 1/6 of a chance, so 1/36th
UserOfShadows wrote on 2021-02-24 23:59:06:
According to Dragon Search, there are currently 14,068,554 unexalted dragons on the site. (14,068,543 minus the deities.) I'm not sure if dragon search counts anything in locked lairs, but let's just assume it doesn't. I know for sure that the Front Page dragon function includes all unexalted dragons not in locked lairs, so dead lairs/hungry dragons are included. The page updates every minute site time.
So, the front page picks 1 in 14,068,543-ish dragons per minute. The chances of the same dragon appearing twice are.... well, low, but not THAT low because the page rerolls every minute of every day. I'm not sure how to calc exact chances, but I've had a couple dragons hit that page twice in my 6 years of being on FR.
Every minute you have the 1 in (unexalted dragons) chance, and while the more rolls you have the more chances you get, it doesn't sum up- otherwise you could 100% expect a dragon to appear by a certain date.
The odds of a specific dragon appearing twice are 1/(unexalted dragons) * 1/(unexalted dragons)
Dice example: you have 1/6th change of rolling a 6. If you roll six times, you get six chances to hit the 1/6th, but it doesn't mean you get 6*1/6= 100% chance. You can roll a 1 every time if you're unlucky.
If you want to roll 6 twice, you have 1/6 * 1/6 of a chance, so 1/36th
I've been here since 2017 and have been front paged at least five or six times, though I don't own a couple of the dergs in question anymore (one was a fodder dragon, RIP).
My favorite front page moment was when my perma
Rick got on there.
I've been here since 2017 and have been front paged at least five or six times, though I don't own a couple of the dergs in question anymore (one was a fodder dragon, RIP).
My favorite front page moment was when my perma
Rick got on there.
pings off | plz no random friend requests/PMs/profile comments
[quote name="Pyracantha" date="2021-02-25 03:23:28" ]
[quote name="UserOfShadows" date="2021-02-24 23:59:06" ]
According to Dragon Search, there are currently 14,068,554 unexalted dragons on the site. (14,068,543 minus the deities.) I'm not sure if dragon search counts anything in locked lairs, but let's just assume it doesn't. I know for sure that the Front Page dragon function includes all unexalted dragons not in locked lairs, so dead lairs/hungry dragons are included. The page updates every minute site time.
So, the front page picks 1 in 14,068,543-ish dragons per minute. The chances of the same dragon appearing twice are.... well, low, but not THAT low because the page rerolls every minute of every day. I'm not sure how to calc exact chances, but I've had a couple dragons hit that page twice in my 6 years of being on FR.
[/quote]
Every minute you have the 1 in (unexalted dragons) chance, and while the more rolls you have the more chances you get, it doesn't sum up- otherwise you could 100% expect a dragon to appear by a certain date.
The odds of a specific dragon appearing twice are 1/(unexalted dragons) * 1/(unexalted dragons)
Dice example: you have 1/6th change of rolling a 6. If you roll six times, you get six chances to hit the 1/6th, but it doesn't mean you get 6*1/6= 100% chance. You can roll a 1 every time if you're unlucky.
If you want to roll 6 twice, you have 1/6 * 1/6 of a chance, so 1/36th
[/quote]
[color=696969]this would be the chance of a dragon appearing twice in a row, so for two minutes, the dragon remains on the front page.
We can model this as a binomial distribution, which is used to model distributions with two outcomes with a set probability of success- with the assumption that the amount of dragons on the site remains constant- [b]which is obviously not the case[/b] however I'm not well versed with the hatching trends by months on fr so cannot attempt to model this.
We can use the formula P(X = r) = nCr x (p)^r x (1-p)^(n-r)
where r is the number of times the dragon appears on the front page, n is the number of minutes which pass (or new pages that occur) and p is the probability of a dragon appearing on the front page, 1/(unexalted dragons).
nCr is simply the number of possible combinations of successes and failures: allowing us to calculate outside of consecutive rolls. This is equal to (n!/(r!(n-r)!).
A better explanation of nCr would be to take our dice example of rolling a dice 10 times and predicting the chance of getting two sixes. Calculating the basic probabilities is cool, we just go okay so that's (1/6)^2 * (5/6)^8 [b]however[/b] this is only accounting for one outcome of getting 2 sixes and 8 non-sixes. If you were to write out all the possible sequences of arranging two 'success' values and two 'fail' values you would get 45 outcomes (also 10C2).
An easier version of nCr you can come up with in your head would be how many times I can arrange two 'X' and two'O' in a sequence we get:
XXOO, XOXO, OOXX, XOOX, OXXO, OXOX or 6 ways- also known as 4C2
So basically we're using the binomial formula to calculate our chances of getting any of the possible outcomes a dragon can appear on a page twice.
[b]but what if we also account for more than twice?[/b]
If a dragon appears 3 times one a page- surely we'd have to account for this? What about 4- technically the dragon appears twice on the page there?
To account for this we simply add together the probability of a dragon not appearing on the front page at all by the probability of it appearing once: then subtract this from 1 (as all probabilities add up to 1)
anyway I'd definitely recommend reading into binomial distributions if you play a lot of chance based games like pokemon ect because it definitely helps with the whole "I have 100 ultra balls what are the chances I catch this metang in time?" or more commonly people use it for the probability of finding shiny pokemon.
[/color]
Pyracantha wrote on 2021-02-25 03:23:28:
UserOfShadows wrote on 2021-02-24 23:59:06:
According to Dragon Search, there are currently 14,068,554 unexalted dragons on the site. (14,068,543 minus the deities.) I'm not sure if dragon search counts anything in locked lairs, but let's just assume it doesn't. I know for sure that the Front Page dragon function includes all unexalted dragons not in locked lairs, so dead lairs/hungry dragons are included. The page updates every minute site time.
So, the front page picks 1 in 14,068,543-ish dragons per minute. The chances of the same dragon appearing twice are.... well, low, but not THAT low because the page rerolls every minute of every day. I'm not sure how to calc exact chances, but I've had a couple dragons hit that page twice in my 6 years of being on FR.
Every minute you have the 1 in (unexalted dragons) chance, and while the more rolls you have the more chances you get, it doesn't sum up- otherwise you could 100% expect a dragon to appear by a certain date.
The odds of a specific dragon appearing twice are 1/(unexalted dragons) * 1/(unexalted dragons)
Dice example: you have 1/6th change of rolling a 6. If you roll six times, you get six chances to hit the 1/6th, but it doesn't mean you get 6*1/6= 100% chance. You can roll a 1 every time if you're unlucky.
If you want to roll 6 twice, you have 1/6 * 1/6 of a chance, so 1/36th
this would be the chance of a dragon appearing twice in a row, so for two minutes, the dragon remains on the front page.
We can model this as a binomial distribution, which is used to model distributions with two outcomes with a set probability of success- with the assumption that the amount of dragons on the site remains constant- which is obviously not the case however I'm not well versed with the hatching trends by months on fr so cannot attempt to model this.
We can use the formula P(X = r) = nCr x (p)^r x (1-p)^(n-r)
where r is the number of times the dragon appears on the front page, n is the number of minutes which pass (or new pages that occur) and p is the probability of a dragon appearing on the front page, 1/(unexalted dragons).
nCr is simply the number of possible combinations of successes and failures: allowing us to calculate outside of consecutive rolls. This is equal to (n!/(r!(n-r)!).
A better explanation of nCr would be to take our dice example of rolling a dice 10 times and predicting the chance of getting two sixes. Calculating the basic probabilities is cool, we just go okay so that's (1/6)^2 * (5/6)^8 however this is only accounting for one outcome of getting 2 sixes and 8 non-sixes. If you were to write out all the possible sequences of arranging two 'success' values and two 'fail' values you would get 45 outcomes (also 10C2).
An easier version of nCr you can come up with in your head would be how many times I can arrange two 'X' and two'O' in a sequence we get:
XXOO, XOXO, OOXX, XOOX, OXXO, OXOX or 6 ways- also known as 4C2
So basically we're using the binomial formula to calculate our chances of getting any of the possible outcomes a dragon can appear on a page twice.
but what if we also account for more than twice?
If a dragon appears 3 times one a page- surely we'd have to account for this? What about 4- technically the dragon appears twice on the page there?
To account for this we simply add together the probability of a dragon not appearing on the front page at all by the probability of it appearing once: then subtract this from 1 (as all probabilities add up to 1)
anyway I'd definitely recommend reading into binomial distributions if you play a lot of chance based games like pokemon ect because it definitely helps with the whole "I have 100 ultra balls what are the chances I catch this metang in time?" or more commonly people use it for the probability of finding shiny pokemon.
Look at these nerds doing math. I can tell you the answer without any math: really low lmao
Look at these nerds doing math. I can tell you the answer without any math: really low lmao
my main dragon got on front once, pretty cool
my main dragon got on front once, pretty cool